周期性气候变化与人类适应

吕厚远

Periodic climate change and human adaptation

LYU Houyuan

图5 自适应循环模型分析气候变化在中国近2000年以来宏观经济周期和朝代周期中的作用[22] 从上到下： 1）α、r、K和Ω分别代表自适应周期的4个阶段[23];它们同时也对应图中第2排的不同王朝; 2）彩色条表示中国百年尺度的暖/冷期[18];3）适应周期中每个主要王朝的阶段;4）各朝代皇帝在适应周期中所处的阶段;这8个圆圈代表8个漫长的朝代：西汉（公元前206年至公元25年）、东汉（公元25年至220年）;唐（公元618-907年）;北宋（北公元960-1127年）;南宋（公元1127-1279年）;元（公元1234-1368年）;明代（公元1368-1644年）;清朝（公元1644-1911年）。

Fig.5 The adaptive cycle model used to analyze the role of climate in the macro-economic and dynastic cycles in China over the past 2000 a[22] From top to bottom: 1) α, r, K, and Ω represent four phases of the adaptive cycle, respectively[23]; here, they also refer to the dynasties identified in the second row of the figure; 2) the colored bar indicates centennial-scale warm/cold periods in China[18]; 3) the phase of each major dynasty in the adaptive cycle; 4) the phase of Emperor in each dynasty in the adaptive cycle; the eight loops represent eight long dynasties: the Western Han(W. Han, 206 BC-AD 25), Eastern Han(E. Han, AD 25-220); Tang(AD 618-907); Northern Song(N. Song, AD 960-1127); Southern Song(S. Song, AD 1127-1279); Yuan(AD 1234-1368); Ming(AD 1368-1644); and Qing(AD 1644-1911)