人类学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (03): 439-449.doi: 10.16359/j.1000-3193/AAS.2021.0063cstr: 32091.14.j.1000-3193/AAS.2021.0063
收稿日期:
2020-12-03
修回日期:
2021-05-08
出版日期:
2022-06-15
发布日期:
2022-06-16
作者简介:
侯侃,讲师、博士后,主要从事人类骨骼考古学研究。Email: 基金资助:
Received:
2020-12-03
Revised:
2021-05-08
Online:
2022-06-15
Published:
2022-06-16
摘要:
成人骨骼年龄的估计向来是存在许多困难和争议的。通过对其发展历程的回顾可知,尽管早已研发出了相对较可靠的用耻骨联合、髂骨耳状关节面等特征部位的形态估计年龄的方法,但鉴于“年龄模拟效应”的存在,这些方法都不可避免地会使估计的结果出现偏差。建立在贝叶斯方法和最大似然估计的基础上,Jesper Boldsen等研发出的“过渡分析”能够有效地消除上述不良影响。借助ADBOU软件,通过对山西先秦时期人骨样本进行过渡分析的实践,发现传统的形态观察法和过渡分析法会造成估计得到的死亡年龄结构出现差异。由于年龄估计结果的差异会对古人口学研究造成显著影响,因此建议在借鉴过渡分析的基础上,加强对年龄估计方法的改进。
中图分类号:
侯侃. 过渡分析在先秦时期人骨年龄估计中的应用[J]. 人类学学报, 2022, 41(03): 439-449.
HOU Kan. Application of the transition analysis in estimation of human skeleton age of the Pre-Qin period[J]. Acta Anthropologica Sinica, 2022, 41(03): 439-449.
纳入分析的数据Data for analysis | 95%置信区间下限The lower limit of the 95% confidence interval | 点估计值 Point estimation value | 95%置信区间上限The upper limit of the 95% confidence interval |
---|---|---|---|
全部数据 | 24.6 | 30.4 | 38.1 |
颅骨骨缝数据 | 20.8 | 37.2 | 82.6 |
耻骨联合面数据 | 24.8 | 32.3 | 44.2 |
耳状关节面数据 | 15 | 16.8 | 35.8 |
表1 XNC60的过渡分析年龄估计结果
Tab.1 Result of transition analysis of XNC60
纳入分析的数据Data for analysis | 95%置信区间下限The lower limit of the 95% confidence interval | 点估计值 Point estimation value | 95%置信区间上限The upper limit of the 95% confidence interval |
---|---|---|---|
全部数据 | 24.6 | 30.4 | 38.1 |
颅骨骨缝数据 | 20.8 | 37.2 | 82.6 |
耻骨联合面数据 | 24.8 | 32.3 | 44.2 |
耳状关节面数据 | 15 | 16.8 | 35.8 |
配对Pair | T | P(双尾two-tailed) |
---|---|---|
a | -0.598 | 0.551 |
b | -1.162 | 0.100 |
c | -3.395 | 0.001 |
d | 2.282 | 0.025 |
表2 两种年龄估计结果的配对t检验
Tab.2 T test of paired-sample estimated ages
配对Pair | T | P(双尾two-tailed) |
---|---|---|
a | -0.598 | 0.551 |
b | -1.162 | 0.100 |
c | -3.395 | 0.001 |
d | 2.282 | 0.025 |
组别Group | 对比组 Group for comparison | 平均差异Mean difference | 标准误 Std. error | P值(双尾)P value (two-tailed) |
---|---|---|---|---|
a | b | -0.502 | 2.382 | 1.000 |
c | -3.630 | 2.384 | 0.565 | |
d | 3.937 | 2.116 | 0.329 | |
b | a | 0.502 | 2.382 | 1.000 |
c | -3.129 | 2.445 | 0.742 | |
d | 4.439 | 2.184 | 0.234 | |
c | a | 3.630 | 2.384 | 0.565 |
b | 3.129 | 2.445 | 0.742 | |
d | -7.568 | 2.186 | 0.004 | |
d | a | -3.937 | 2.116 | 0.329 |
b | -4.439 | 2.184 | 0.234 | |
c | -7.568 | 2.186 | 0.004 |
表3 四组置信区间宽度的Weich’s ANOVA检验的多重比较结果
Tab.3 Results of multiple comparison of Weich’s ANOVA of four groups of the width of confidence interval
组别Group | 对比组 Group for comparison | 平均差异Mean difference | 标准误 Std. error | P值(双尾)P value (two-tailed) |
---|---|---|---|---|
a | b | -0.502 | 2.382 | 1.000 |
c | -3.630 | 2.384 | 0.565 | |
d | 3.937 | 2.116 | 0.329 | |
b | a | 0.502 | 2.382 | 1.000 |
c | -3.129 | 2.445 | 0.742 | |
d | 4.439 | 2.184 | 0.234 | |
c | a | 3.630 | 2.384 | 0.565 |
b | 3.129 | 2.445 | 0.742 | |
d | -7.568 | 2.186 | 0.004 | |
d | a | -3.937 | 2.116 | 0.329 |
b | -4.439 | 2.184 | 0.234 | |
c | -7.568 | 2.186 | 0.004 |
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